Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy

Warner Marzocchi (), Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Paolo Gasparini, Maria Mastellone and Angela Di Ruocco

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2012, vol. 62, issue 2, 573 pages

Abstract: The assessment of the impact of different catastrophic events in a given area requires innovative approaches that allow risks comparison and that account for all the possible risk interactions. In the common practice, the risk evaluation related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting disparate procedures and time--space resolutions. Such a strategy of risks evaluation has some evident major drawbacks as, for example, it is difficult (if not impossible) to compare the risk of different origins, and the implicit assumption of independence of the risk sources leads to neglect possible interactions among threats and/or cascade effects. The latter may amplify the overall risk, and potentially the multi-risk index could be higher than the simple aggregation of single-risk indexes calculated considering each source as independent from the others. In this paper, we put forward some basic principles for multi-risk assessment, and we consider a real application to Casalnuovo municipality (Southern Italy), in which we face the problem to make different hazards comparable, and we highlight when and how possible interactions among different threats may become important. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Keywords: Multi-risk assessment; Hazards interaction; Risk assessment; Casalnuovo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (29)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0092-x

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