Track prediction of Indian Ocean cyclones using Lagrangian advection model

Sanjeev Singh (), C. Kishtawal and P. Pal

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2012, vol. 62, issue 3, 745-778

Abstract: A new model has been developed for track prediction of Indian Ocean cyclones. The model utilizes environmental steering flow using the forecasts from a high-resolution global model and the effect due to earth’s rotation (the beta-effect) to determine the future movement of cyclone. A new approach based on vertical profile of potential vorticity is used to determine weights for different vertical levels for computation of mean steering current. Despite the fact that the model is based on the dynamical framework, the operational cost and time for running the model is only a fraction of what is needed by a normal numerical weather prediction model. This new approach will enhance flexibility in defining the initial position of the cyclone in the model, and also, it is possible to create a large ensemble of predicted tracks to assess the impact of the uncertainty of initial cyclone position on the predicted tracks. The performance of the model for ten cyclones, viz. GONU (02–08 Jun, 2007), SIDR (11–16 November, 2007), NARGIS (27 Apr–04 May, 2008), RASHMI (25–27 October, 2008) KHAI-MUK (14–16 November, 2008), NISHA (25–27 November, 2008), SEVEN (04–08 December, 2008), BIJLI (14–18 April, 2009), AILA (23–26 May, 2009), and PHYAN (09–11 November, 2009), have been tested in the present study. The forecast errors of the present model have been computed with respect to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center best track analysis positions. The forecast skill improvement (mean of ten cyclones) of the model with respect to the Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) statistical model varies from 7 to 67 % between 12 and 72 h. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Keywords: Lagrangian advection model; Beta-effect; Steering current; Potential vorticity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-012-0121-9 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:62:y:2012:i:3:p:745-778

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0121-9

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().