Thermal infrared anomalies as a precursor of strong earthquakes in the distant future

Qing-Lin Yao () and Zu-Ji Qiang

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2012, vol. 62, issue 3, 1003 pages

Abstract: Satellite thermal infrared images contain valuable earthquake precursor information. Past studies concluded that such information appeared only a few days or dozens of days before an earthquake would occur. In our study, though, we observed that the time intervals between the thermal infrared precursor and an earthquake’s occurrence can be up to 10 years. An infrared image can also synchronously indicate the locations of additional future earthquakes with different epicenters within a region. The shape, area, intensity, and movement of thermal infrared anomaly areas are a combination of all the future strong earthquakes within a region. These distant future earthquakes are generally located near the edges, endpoints, or corners of the main structure, fine structures or periphery structures of a thermal infrared anomaly area and play a role in confining the anomaly area. There have not been any exceptions among the strong earthquakes we analyzed, which have included the 2011 Japan M w 9 event, the 2010 Yushu M S 7.1 event, the 2008 Wenchuan M S 8 event, and many other strong events following the 2004 Sumatra M S 9 event. Surprisingly, some of the earthquakes can outline an area of elevated temperature observed many months ago. If we can roughly locate these potential epicenters through the analysis of thermal infrared images and combining the analysis with other information, and then dynamically monitor them, it may be easier to observe the precursor of an earthquake and predict its occurrence. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Keywords: Earthquake; Precursor; Distant future; Thermal infrared; Remote sensing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0130-8

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