Climate prediction experiences in southern Africa 1990–2005 and key outcomes

Mark Jury ()

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2013, vol. 65, issue 3, 1883-1894

Abstract: This paper reviews long-range climate prediction with a focus on experiences in southern Africa from 1990 to 2005 and statistical techniques based on historical replication. The initial growth and use of climate predictions in southern Africa created an understanding of tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean coupling with Pacific El Niño and the African monsoon, and fostered extensions of the global observing system as a key outcome. An intercomparison of forecast errors highlights optimal scales for model aggregation. Cases of forecast development are analyzed and a tendency for neutral messages is found. South African maize yield exhibits an uptrend (+0.26 T ha −1 /year) since 1992 that may be related to the increased use of Internet and uptake of long-range forecasts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Keywords: Long-range climate prediction in southern Africa; Personal experiences 1995–2005; Key outcomes: ocean observations and maize yield (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-012-0451-7 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:65:y:2013:i:3:p:1883-1894

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0451-7

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().