Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis

Beibei Hu (), Jun Zhou, Shiyuan Xu, Zhenlou Chen, Jun Wang, Dongqi Wang, Lei Wang, Jifa Guo and Weiqing Meng

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2013, vol. 66, issue 2, 873-886

Abstract: Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Keywords: Land subsidence; Scenario analysis; Economic losses; Tianjin Binhai New Area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:66:y:2013:i:2:p:873-886

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0530-9

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