Debris flow prediction models based on environmental factors and susceptible subarea classification in Sichuan, China

Wenbo Xu (), Wenjuan Yu, Shaocai Jing, Zhaoxian Wang, Guoping Zhang and Jianxi Huang

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2013, vol. 67, issue 2, 869-878

Abstract: Environmental factors account for the occurrence of debris flow, as well as different weights of subareas with different risk levels. Considering the relationship between debris flow and rainfall (including the intraday rainfall and the effective rainfall of the previous 10 days), seven environmental factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, flow accumulation, vegetation coverage, soil, and land use, were added in this study. The whole area of Sichuan Province was divided into subareas according to different risk levels. Debris flow prediction models were then established by using a logistic regression model. Results showed that the prediction accuracy was decreased approximately by 3 % after the environmental factors were introduced to the entire study area. The prediction accuracy of the prediction models that comprised the introduced environmental factors was increased by 22.2, 9.7, and 14.3 % in different susceptible areas (moderately susceptible, highly susceptible, very highly susceptible), respectively, compared with that of the prediction models in which rainfall was only considered. Therefore, the research method that introduced the environmental factors may be used to improve the accuracy of debris flow prediction models based on susceptible area classification. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Keywords: Debris flow; Environmental factor; Logistic regression; Predicting model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-013-0608-z (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:869-878

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0608-z

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().