Evaluation of risk of hydrological droughts by the trivariate Plackett copula in the East River basin (China)

Yongqin Chen, Qiang Zhang (), Mingzhong Xiao and Vijay Singh

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2013, vol. 68, issue 2, 529-547

Abstract: East River, one of the major tributaries of Pearl River, is the major source of water supply for mega-cites within and in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta, China. The availability and variability of water resources of the East River basin are therefore of practical importance. This study aims to investigate the probabilistic behavior of hydrological droughts in the East River basin using the trivariate Plackett copula. Daily streamflow data for the period of 1975–2009 from 3 hydrological stations in the East River basin are analyzed. Defining hydrological droughts by drought severity, duration, and minimum flow, secondary return periods are computed. Results show that the Plackett copula satisfactorily models bivariate and trivariate probability distributions of correlated drought variables. Results of risk evaluation show an increasing drought risk from the upper to the lower East River basin. This result is important for basin-scale water resources management in the East River basin. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Keywords: Hydrological drought; Trivariate Plackett copula; Secondary return period; East River (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0628-8

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