Study on spatial prediction and time forecast of landslide

Gao Hua-xi () and Yin Kun-long

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2014, vol. 70, issue 3, 1735-1748

Abstract: Landslide is one of natural hazards in mountainous regions, which has resulted in a large quantity of casualties and property losses and also has absorbed high attention of the researchers and government. A considerable amount of research has been carried out in the past 30 years in the landslide field. In this paper, the contribution and existing problems on landslide are analyzed and summarized in the previous studies. Spatial prediction and zonation of the regional landslide are developed by using information content model that is a new method, with the example of landslide in Xincheng District of Badong County. On the other hand, by learning from the forecast theories and methods of earthquake forecast, probability of excess for landslide that will take place in the studied area is calculated quantitatively in next 5 and 10 years. All the calculated results are mainly accordant with the regional fact. Therefore, it may provide scientific data for landslide prevention and reduction as well as landslide management. Based on the achievement obtained in this study, it was found that 29.11% of the total area was prone to landslide due to the adverse effects of topography, reservoir water in the leading edge of bank, and improper land use. At the same time, the theory of spatial prediction and probability of excess will be example and reference for the other region of China or the world. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2014

Keywords: Regional landslide; Spatial prediction; Time forecast; Probability of excess (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9756-1

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