Bayesian probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Shanxi rift system (China)

Ying Wang (), Qinglong Zhang and Chao Liu

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2014, vol. 71, issue 3, 1749-1769

Abstract: China has a long history of earthquake records. The Shanxi rift system (SRS) is situated along the axial zone of the domal uplift of the Shanxi Highlands and is the boundary between the Ordos block and the North China Plain block. Strong earthquakes in the SRS have been recorded since the thirteenth century. In our work, we applied the Bayesian probability method using extreme value distribution of earthquake occurrences to estimate the seismic hazard in the SRS. The seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate, and magnitude were considered as the basic parameters for computing the Bayesian prior estimates of the seismicity. These estimates were then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical estimates of seismicity in the SRS. The probability of occurrence of $$M_{\text{s}}=5.0$$ M s = 5.0 for Z1, Z2, and Z3 is less than 0.3, 0.1, and 0.6, respectively (T=5 years). The probability of the occurrence of M $$\ge$$ ≥ 8.0 is small for the whole SRS. The selection of upper bound magnitude probably influences the result, and the upper bound magnitude of Z1, Z2, and Z3 may be 7.5, 7.0, and 8.5, respectively. We obtained the values of the magnitude of completeness M c (3.2) and the Gutenberg–Richter b value before applying the Bayesian extreme value distribution of earthquake occurrences method. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: Central North China; Bayesian probabilities; Seismic hazard assessment; Earthquake occurrences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-013-0973-7 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:3:p:1749-1769

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0973-7

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().