An objective prediction model for typhoon rainstorm using particle swarm optimization: neural network ensemble

Hua-sheng Zhao, Long Jin (), Ying Huang and Jian Jin

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2014, vol. 73, issue 2, 427-437

Abstract: A nonlinear ensemble prediction model for typhoon rainstorm has been developed based on particle swarm optimization-neural network (PSO-NN). In this model, PSO algorithm is employed for optimizing the network structure and initial weight of the NN with creating multiple ensemble members. The model input of the ensemble member is the high correlated grid point factors selected from the rainfall forecast field of Japan Meteorological Agency numerical prediction products using the stepwise regression method, and the model output is the future 24 h rainfall forecast of the 89 stations. Results show that the objective prediction model is more accurate than the numerical prediction model which is directly interpolated into the stations, so it can better been implemented for the interpretation and application of numerical prediction products, indicating a potentially better operational weather prediction. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: Typhoon rainstorm; Objective prediction; Particle swarm optimization algorithm; Neural network; Interpretation and application (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1089-4 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:73:y:2014:i:2:p:427-437

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1089-4

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().