Quantitatively analyze the impact of land use/land cover change on annual runoff decrease

Jianzhu Li (), Senming Tan, Fulong Chen and Ping Feng

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2014, vol. 74, issue 2, 1207 pages

Abstract: Annual runoff in Luanhe river basin was detected a downward trend and caused water crisis in Tianjin, China. To quantify the decreased runoff volume, Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt test were employed to check whether there existed significant trend and change points for annual rainfall and runoff time series in Panjiakou reservoir basin and 8 sub-watersheds. It was found that the annual runoff time series had a significant downward trend at 5 % confidence level, and the change point was at 1979 in Panjiakou reservoir watershed. Then double mass curve of annual rainfall and annual runoff was plotted, and two lines were fitted before and after 1979, respectively. Based on this method, the comprehensive effects of land use/land cover change on annual runoff were estimated. To further quantify the contributions of each main factor to annual runoff decrease, water stored in check dams and social water use in different periods were surveyed first. And then multi-linear regression was used to develop the relations between annual runoff and the driven factors. Water area decrease was identified to be the main factor contributing to annual runoff reduction. The results in this study can provide valuable information for water resources planners and policy makers. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: Runoff decrease quantification; Land use/land cover change; Trend test; Change point detection; Luanhe river basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1237-x

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