Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Phetchabun and Krabi provinces, Thailand

Keisuke Ono (), So Kazama and Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2014, vol. 74, issue 3, 2089-2107

Abstract: Shallow landslides are a common type of rainfall-induced landslide, and various methods are currently used to predict their occurrence on a regional scale. Physically based models, such as the shallow landslide instability prediction (SLIP) model, have many advantages because these models can assess the hazards of shallow landslides dynamically, based on physical stability equations that consider rainfall as a triggering factor. The main objective of this research is to test the SLIP model’s potential to predict shallow landslide hazards in Thailand. To achieve this goal, the SLIP model was applied to two massive landslide events in Thailand. The results predicted by the SLIP model for the two study areas are outlined, and the model prediction capabilities were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic plot. The Phetchabun results showed that the western part of the catchment had the lowest factor of safety (F S ) value, whereas the Krabi results showed that the slopes surrounding the peak of Khao Panom Mountain had the lowest F S value, explaining the highest potentials for shallow landslides in each area. The SLIP model showed good performance: The global accuracies were 0.828 for the Phetchabun area and 0.824 for the Krabi area. The SLIP model predicted the daily time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the analyzed periods. The SLIP model simulated a negligible percentage of unstable areas over all considered periods, except for expected dates, suggesting that the prediction capability is reasonably accurate. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Keywords: Hazard mapping; Physically based model; Factor of safety; Extreme rainfall; Stability analysis; Sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1292-3

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