On the use of AFOSM to estimate major earthquake probabilities in Taiwan

J. Wang () and H. Kuo-Chen

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2015, vol. 75, issue 3, 2577-2587

Abstract: Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an earthquake empirical model subject to a model error of 0.26 M w . The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could be as high as 64 % for a major earthquake in northern Taiwan to exceed M w 7.0, considering the length and slip rate of the Sanchiao fault are equal to 36 km and 2 ± 1 mm per year. By contrast, the other case study shows that for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan, the probability is “only” 4 % for earthquake magnitude to exceed M w 7.0, given a shorter fault length of 14 km and a larger slip rate of 6 ± 3 mm per year. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Keywords: AFOSM; Earthquake probability; Taiwan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1448-1

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