The Pattern Method for incorporating tidal uncertainty into probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA)

Loyce Adams (), Randall LeVeque () and Frank González ()

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2015, vol. 76, issue 1, 19-39

Abstract: In this paper, we describe a general framework for incorporating tidal uncertainty into probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment and propose the Pattern Method and a simpler special case called the $$\Delta t$$ Δ t Method as effective approaches. The general framework also covers the method developed by Mofjeld et al. (J Atmos Ocean Technol 24(1):117–123, 2007 ) that was used for the 2009 Seaside, Oregon probabilistic study by González et al. (J Geophys Res 114(C11):023, 2009 ). We show that the Pattern Method is superior to past approaches because it takes advantage of our ability to run the tsunami simulation at multiple tide stages and uses the time history of flow depth at strategic gauge locations to infer the temporal pattern of waves that is unique to each tsunami source. Combining these patterns with knowledge of the tide cycle at a particular location improves the ability to estimate the probability that a wave will arrive at a time when the tidal stage is sufficiently large that a quantity of interest such as the maximum flow depth exceeds a specified level. Python scripts to accompany this paper are available at DOI 10.5281/zenodo.12406 . Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Keywords: PTHA; Hazard curves; 100-yr flood; GeoClaw; Probabilistic tidal uncertainty; 86-08 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1482-z (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:76:y:2015:i:1:p:19-39

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1482-z

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().