Reconstruction of long-term earth-flow activity using a hydroclimatological model

Luigi Guerriero (), Nazzareno Diodato, Francesco Fiorillo, Paola Revellino, Gerardo Grelle and Francesco Guadagno

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2015, vol. 77, issue 1, 15 pages

Abstract: This study presents a new proxy for the reconstruction of the historical activity of large earth flows. A simple relationship between rainfall, temperature and groundwater levels was established using available monthly time series and subsequently utilized to develop the Landslide Hydrological Climatological (LHC) indicator to simulate the effects of hydroclimatic influence on slope stability for the Montaguto earth flow in Southern Italy. In order to identify phases of earth-flow activity, an empirical threshold was assigned. Our result indicates a different response of the earth flow to hydroclimatic stress with both ordinary and extraordinary reactivations over the historic period. Additional information suggests that earth-flow reactivations are clustered in the spring and an extraordinary earth-flow activity follows periods with a LHC below the average. A modeling result shows that the LHC is able to realistically reconstruct the long-term activity of a complex earth flow with only a few false-positives in a very long period of application. Thus, it can be considered as a tool for long-term earth-flow activity reconstruction and assessment. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Keywords: Earth flow; Landslide activity; Climate-driven processes; Proxy data; Montaguto; Southern Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1578-5 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:1:p:1-15

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1578-5

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().