Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China

Ying Li, Wei Gu, Weijia Cui (), Zhiyun Chang and Yingjun Xu

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2015, vol. 77, issue 2, 1289-1303

Abstract: Many factors are involved in the occurrence of crop drought events, and some related studies have focused on the problems of multi-factor integration. Probability is the basis of disaster risk research, but the solver of multi-element integrated probability, commonly used in drought risk analysis, cannot solve the multi-factor nonlinear relationship. Therefore, new methods are needed to build the joint probability distribution of multi-element integration, and the use of the copula function is one approach that can better explain the combined effects of multi-factor equations. We extracted the sequence of meteorological drought events during the growth period of winter wheat in Beijing from 1952 to 2012 and selected the appropriate characterization of drought severity and duration. The copula function was used to build a joint distribution function and to calculate the return period of drought events. Based on the joint probability method, the joint return periods were calculated and resulting risk was analyzed. The joint return periods were close to reality, and they offer greater potential for improving high-level meteorological drought disaster mitigation, strategy planning, program design, and risk management. Using the joint probability and values of the featured variables, the joint return period under different conditions could be calculated easily. The contribution of the copula function in estimating the uncertainty of drought level risk can lay the foundation for a joint analysis of multi-factor crop meteorological disaster risk. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Keywords: Crop meteorological drought risk; Copula function; Distribution probability; Return period; Winter wheat (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1649-2

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