Changes in volcanic hazard exposure in the Northwest USA from 1940 to 2100

Stephen Strader (), Walker Ashley and James Walker

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2015, vol. 77, issue 2, 1365-1392

Abstract: This investigation frames volcano disaster potentialities for the US Pacific Northwest by assessing the interaction of the region’s growing population and affiliated housing development with volcanic hazards. Changes in human and residential exposure to the hazards are measured for a period of 1940 through 2100 by employing fine-scale (100 m) historical, current, and forecast demographic data derived from a spatial allocation model. Forecast population and housing unit density data from the model are based on societal change scenarios generated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ensemble approach reveals variations and uncertainties in the future hazard exposures, illustrating an envelope of volcano disaster possibilities. The demographic data are evaluated using a three-step, worst-case, downscaling approach by first calculating possible regional impacts before measuring volcano proximal and, thereafter, local hazard consequences. Results indicate that the Northwest regional study area is forecast to experience as much as a 445 % increase in total population and 1336 % amplification in housing unit counts from 1940 to 2100. The Mount Rainier proximal and local hazard analyses reveal the greatest overall increase in the total population and housing units for the entire period of record, whereas the Glacier Peak proximal and local hazard zone are forecast to experience the greatest percentage increase in population and housing units. These findings may be used by emergency managers, land planners, insurers, decision makers, and the public to discover changes in volcanic hazard risk and exposure within their communities, as well as assess potential mitigation and sustainability options. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Keywords: Hazards; Exposure; Volcano; ICLUS; SRES (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:1365-1392

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1658-1

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