Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

H. Zafarani (), S. Ghafoori (), M. Adlparvar, P. Rajaeian and A. Hasankhani

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2015, vol. 78, issue 1, 155-178

Abstract: The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a ) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(∆t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M f ) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M f = 5.8) and 15 (M f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Keywords: Time- and magnitude-predictable model; Long-term earthquake prediction; Time-dependent models; Seismic hazard; Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1708-8

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