Impact of physics parameterization and 3DVAR data assimilation on prediction of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region

R. Chandrasekar and C. Balaji ()

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 80, issue 1, 223-247

Abstract: This study focuses on the sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulations to physics parametrization scheme for TCs in the Bay of Bengal (BOB). The goal of this study was to arrive at the optimum set of schemes for the BOB region to increase forecast skill. Four TCs, namely Khaimuk, Laila, Jal and Thane have been simulated through the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with all the physics parametrization schemes available in WRF, and the optimum set of schemes is arrived at. The analysis shows the cumulus, microphysics and planetary boundary layer parameterizations exert a very significant influence on the TC simulations than land surface, short-wave radiation and long-wave radiation parameterizations. With this optimum set of physics schemes, the impact of assimilation of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Automatic Data Processing upper air observations data in the TC simulations has been studied by using three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation technique. The control run (without assimilation) and the 3DVAR-simulated tracks and maximum sustained wind speed have been compared with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center observed tracks and wind data. The model-simulated precipitation is validated with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 2A12 surface rain rate and 3B42 daily accumulated rain data. Bias score and equitable threat score have been evaluated for both instantaneous rain rate and 72-h accumulated rain. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Keywords: Tropical cyclones; WRF; 3DVAR; Sensitivity study; Bay of Bengal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-015-1966-5 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:1:p:223-247

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1966-5

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().