A high-resolution simulation of catastrophic rainfall over Uttarakhand, India

Prashant Kumar (), Bipasha Shukla, Som Sharma, C. Kishtawal and P. Pal

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 80, issue 2, 1119-1134

Abstract: On 16 June 2013, intense and continuous rainfall together led to the collapse of moraine-dammed lake (Chorabari Lake) and devastated the entire land of Uttarakhand, Himalaya. This caused heavy floods in Uttarakhand (28°43′−31°27′ latitudes and 77°34′–81°02′ longitudes) along with unprecedented damage to life and property. Timely prediction and warning of such severe local weather systems over complex terrain are the first step towards disaster mitigation and bears huge societal impact. In this study, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model was configured at high spatial resolution (2 km) to simulate the Kedarnath heavy rainfall event over Uttarakhand region of India during 16–17 June 2013. Results showed that the WRF model was able to predict the Kedarnath heavy rainfall. Location and intensity of heavy rainfall were captured by the WRF model when verified with in situ measurements and satellite-retrieved rainfall products. Moreover, the explicit impact of topography in triggering this extreme weather event has been discussed using a diagnostic model which demonstrated that orographic component of rain rate is quite high over this region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Keywords: Heavy rainfall; High resolution; Numerical weather forecast; Forecast skill (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2013-2

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