A household-level flood evacuation decision model in Quezon City, Philippines

Ma. Lim (), Hector Lim (), Mongkut Piantanakulchai () and Francis Uy ()

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 80, issue 3, 1539-1561

Abstract: Evacuation is one of the important preparedness measures in disaster management. It requires careful modeling and planning to minimize chaos and confusion during evacuation operations. The choice of decision-makers, whether to evacuate or stay in the area threatened by hazard, is an important aspect of evacuation travel behavior research. This is considered an essential input for evacuation modeling and planning. This study investigates the effects of various factors determining evacuation decision. A discrete choice model is proposed using the data collected through a face-to-face post-event survey from flood-affected households in Quezon City, Philippines. The model allows a choice among three alternatives of full, partial, and no evacuation. Results show that evacuation decision is determined by a combination of household characteristics and capacity-related factors (gender, educational level, presence of children, and number of years living in the residence, house ownership, number of house floor levels, type of house material), as well as hazard-related factors (distance from source of flood, level of flood damage, and source of warning). Findings in the study provide insights that can be considered by policy-makers in preparing for future evacuations. Appropriate programs can be designed to encourage full evacuation compliance of households that live nearest to the flood source and those living in houses with two or more floor levels who are more likely not to evacuate. Households with children can also be educated for full evacuation compliance since these households have higher probability to partially evacuate. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Keywords: Flood; Evacuation decision; Travel behavior; Evacuation modeling; Discrete choice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2038-6

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