A Markov regime-switching framework to forecast El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns

Iván Cárdenas-Gallo (), Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei (), Mauricio Sánchez-Silva () and Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga ()
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Iván Cárdenas-Gallo: Universidad de los Andes
Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei: Universidad de los Andes
Mauricio Sánchez-Silva: Universidad de los Andes
Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga: LUNAM Université, Université de Nantes-Ecole Centrale Nantes, GeM, Institute for Research in Civil and Mechanical Engineering/Sea and Littoral Research Institute, CNRS UMR 6183/FR 3473

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 81, issue 2, No 7, 829-843

Abstract: Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an ocean–atmosphere phenomenon involving sustained sea surface temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean, causing disruptions in the behavior of the ocean and atmosphere. We develop a Markov-switching autoregressive model to describe the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a variable that explains ENSO, using two autoregressive processes to describe the time evolution of SOI, each of which associated with a specific phase of ENSO. The switching between these two models is governed by a discrete-time Markov chain, with time-varying transition probabilities. Then, we extend the model using sinusoidal functions to forecast future values of SOI. The results can be used as a decision-making tool in the process of risk mitigation against weather- and climate-related disasters.

Keywords: ENSO; Markov-switching; Autoregressive processes; Forecasting; Regimes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2106-y

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