Intensity and economic loss assessment of the snow, low-temperature and frost disasters: a case study of Beijing City

Guizhi Wang (), Lingyan Wu and Jibo Chen
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Guizhi Wang: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Lingyan Wu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Jibo Chen: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 84, issue 1, No 17, 293-307

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, an ordinal regression model and a K-means clustering method are employed to directly assess the intensity of snow, low-temperature and frost disasters in non-pasture areas. Then, economic loss caused by the disasters is evaluated quantitatively by static and dynamic input–output models, respectively. Finally, an empirical analysis is conducted taking Beijing as an example. Compared to historical data in Beijing, results show that snowstorms in 2010 occurred more frequently than before when the intensity was weaker. Meanwhile, the frequency of low-temperature and frost disasters occurring did not change much, but serious low-temperature disasters happened due to heavy snowfalls. The indirect economic losses of the snow, low-temperature and frost disasters occurring in Beijing in 2010 are 2.23 times the direct economic losses. And some sectors are very sensitive to the disasters. Furthermore, it is found that the total economic losses obtained by a dynamic input–output model are less than that evaluated by a static model.

Keywords: Ordinal regression; Input–output model; Snow disasters; Low-temperature and frost disasters; Intensity assessment; Indirect economic losses assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2429-3

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