A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan

Lijiao Yang (), Yoshio Kajitani, Hirokazu Tatano () and Xinyu Jiang
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Lijiao Yang: Wuhan University of Technology
Yoshio Kajitani: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
Hirokazu Tatano: Kyoto University
Xinyu Jiang: Kyoto University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 84, issue 1, No 24, 430 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.

Keywords: Business interruption loss; Functional fragility curves; Accelerated failure time model; Flood disasters; Business resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2534-3

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