Potential effects of climate changes on soil–atmosphere interaction and landslide hazard

Guido Rianna (), Luca Comegna, Paola Mercogliano and Luciano Picarelli
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Guido Rianna: CMCC Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Luca Comegna: Design, Edilizia e Ambiente, Seconda Università di Napoli
Paola Mercogliano: CMCC Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Luciano Picarelli: Design, Edilizia e Ambiente, Seconda Università di Napoli

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 84, issue 2, No 37, 1487-1499

Abstract: Abstract In the recent years, the scientific community is involved in an intense debate around the effects of global warming. In fact, this could determine valuable changes in atmospheric forcing that govern the soil–atmosphere interaction and, in turn, water budget in the subsoil, with unpredictable consequences, inter alia, on geohydrological hazards. An early and proper assessment of the magnitude of such phenomena would be of great importance in establishing the priorities and timing in adaptation strategies. The paper reports some results obtained through a simulation chain which accounts for the potential climatic changes induced by two different socioeconomic concentration scenarios in atmospheric forcing and consequent changes in soil moisture and, then, slope response. The analyses concern a site located in Southern Italy, representative of Mediterranean area, deemed an “hot spot” for future climate changes. It is shown that, beyond the variations induced by climate changes, soil nature and land cover could play a major role.

Keywords: Slope stability; Climate changes; Soil–atmosphere interaction; Representative Concentration Pathways; Soil moisture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2481-z

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