Exploring representativeness and reliability for late medieval earthquakes in Europe

Paolo Forlin (), Christopher Gerrard and David Petley
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Paolo Forlin: Durham University
Christopher Gerrard: Durham University
David Petley: University of East Anglia

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 84, issue 3, No 7, 1625-1636

Abstract: Abstract Seismic catalogues of past earthquakes have compiled a substantial amount of information about historical seismicity for Europe and the Mediterranean. Using two of the most recent European seismic databases (AHEAD and EMEC), this paper employs GIS spatial analysis (kernel density estimation) to explore the representativeness and reliability of data captured for late medieval earthquakes. We identify those regions where the occurrence of earthquakes is significantly higher or lower than expected values and investigate possible reasons for these discrepancies. The nature of the seismic events themselves, the methodology employed during catalogue compilation and the availability of medieval written records are all briefly explored.

Keywords: Earthquakes; Historical seismicity; Late medieval Europe; GIS; Kernel density estimation; Risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2502-y

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