A cascading flash flood guidance system: development and application in Yunnan Province, China

Ziyue Zeng, Guoqiang Tang, Di Long (), Chao Zeng, Meihong Ma, Yang Hong (), Hui Xu and Jing Xu
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Ziyue Zeng: Tsinghua University
Guoqiang Tang: Tsinghua University
Di Long: Tsinghua University
Chao Zeng: Tsinghua University
Meihong Ma: Beijing Normal University
Yang Hong: Tsinghua University
Hui Xu: China Meteorological Administration
Jing Xu: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2016, vol. 84, issue 3, No 28, 2093 pages

Abstract: Abstract Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, suffers from massive flash flood hazards due to its complex mountainous hydrometeorology. However, traditional flash flood forecasting approaches can hardly provide an effective and comprehensive guide. Aiming to build a multilevel guidance system of flash flood warning for Yunnan, this study develops a Cascading Flash Flood Guidance (CFFG) system, progressively from the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI), the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI) to the Flash Flood Risk Index (FFRI). First, land cover and vegetation cover data from MODIS products, the Harmonized World Soil Database soil map, and SRTM slope data are used in generating a composite FFPI map. In this process, an integrated approach of the analytic hierarchy process and the information entropy theory is used as a weighting method. Then, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 6 h and maximum 24 h amount) are added to derive FFHI. Further inclusion of GDP, population and flood prevention measures as vulnerability factors for the FFRI enabled prediction of the flash flood risk. The spatial patterns of the CFFG indices indicate that counties in east Yunnan are most susceptible to flash floods, which agrees with the distribution of observed flash flood events. Compared to other approaches, the CFFG system could be a useful prototype in mapping characteristics of China’s flash floods in a cascading manner (i.e., potential, hazard and risk) for users at different administrative levels (e.g., town, county, province and even nation).

Keywords: Flash flood forecasting; Cascading flash flood guidance system; Flash Flood Potential Index; Flash Flood Hazard Index; Flash Flood Risk Index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2535-2

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