Coal price fluctuation mechanism in China based on system dynamics model

Zhihua Ding, Caicai Feng (), Zhenhua Liu (), Guangqiang Wang, Lingyun He and Manzhi Liu
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Zhihua Ding: China University of Mining and Technology
Caicai Feng: China University of Mining and Technology
Zhenhua Liu: China University of Mining and Technology
Guangqiang Wang: China University of Mining and Technology
Lingyun He: China University of Mining and Technology
Manzhi Liu: China University of Mining and Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2017, vol. 85, issue 2, No 26, 1167 pages

Abstract: Abstract We analyze and identify the factors that influence coal price fluctuations and construct a system dynamics model of these factors. The simulation results show that the trend in China’s future coal prices first declines and then rises, that the trends of coal supply and consumption in China are quite similar, both exhibiting a rising tendency, and that the gap between supply and demand is small and that the market is essentially in equilibrium. However, the increase in the coal industry profit margins also entails an increase in coal prices, and the magnitude of coal price increases also gradually grows. Greater adjustment coefficient factors lead to higher simulated coal price values, and the magnitude of increase also tends to rise. On the one hand, the greater the coal industry policy coefficient is, the closer the simulated coal price is to the value in the real scenario. On the other hand, the smaller the coal industry policy coefficient is, the greater the extent to which the coal price deviates from the real simulated value.

Keywords: Coal price; Causality diagram; System flow diagram; Model simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2626-0

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