Assessing hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty

Cao Wang, Hao Zhang, Kairui Feng and Quanwang Li ()
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Cao Wang: Tsinghua University
Hao Zhang: The University of Sydney
Kairui Feng: Tsinghua University
Quanwang Li: Tsinghua University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2017, vol. 85, issue 3, No 15, 1635 pages

Abstract: Abstract Probability-based assessment of hurricane damage costs for coastal communities is vital for policy-makers and insurers. The uncertainties associated with hurricane damage costs include both the inherent uncertainty due to the random nature of hurricane process and the model uncertainty of the mathematical representation of hurricane damage (vulnerability model). The hurricane vulnerability model has traditionally been modeled as a deterministic function of hurricane wind speed in the literature, without considering the effect of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage assessment. This paper develops two methods to assess the hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty. To account for the non-stationarity in hurricane actions due to the potential impact of climate change, the hurricane occurrence process is modeled as a non-stationary Poisson process and the hurricane intensity is assumed to vary in time with time-variant statistical parameters of hurricane wind speed. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, is conducted to illustrate the proposed methods and to investigate the impact of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage costs.

Keywords: Hurricane; Damage costs; Hurricane vulnerability; Model uncertainty; Probabilistic risk analysis; Non-stationarity; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2651-z

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