A STIRPAT model-based methodology for calculating energy savings in China’s existing civil buildings from 2001 to 2015

Minda Ma, Ran Yan and Weiguang Cai ()
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Minda Ma: Chongqing University
Ran Yan: Chongqing University
Weiguang Cai: Chongqing University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2017, vol. 87, issue 3, No 28, 1765-1781

Abstract: Abstract Evaluating energy savings in China’s existing civil buildings (ESCECB) plays an essential role in China building energy efficiency (BEE) work. Nevertheless, one missing possibility along this direction is that the said work is currently challenged by the lack of effective method for calculating ESCECB data by summarizing all the quantifiable and unquantifiable impact factors. To overcome this problem, this study employed the method of Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology, and the index decomposition approach of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index to establish an effective ESCECB calculation method, and then calculated ESCECB data during the period of 2001–2015. Results reflect that ESCECB has significantly accumulated with the rapid development of China BEE work in the past 15 years. In particular, ESCECB data in 2001–2005, 2006–2010, and 2011–2015 are 111, 138, and 248 million tons of standard coal equivalent, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison between the calculated ESCECB and the officially planned ones in the said periods indicates that China has surpassed its BEE targets and China BEE policies obtained a good implementation effect. This study proves the feasibility of calculating ESCECB data and fills the lack of research on effective ESCECB calculation methods. Moreover, this calculation model is also applicable for calculating energy savings in existing civil buildings at a provincial or regional level.

Keywords: Energy savings in China’s existing civil buildings (ESCECB); China’s building energy consumption (CBEC); STIRPAT method; LMDI decomposition approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2847-x

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