Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction

A. K. Sahai (), S. Sharmila, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, Samson Joseph, N. Borah, B. N. Goswami, D. S. Pai and A. K. Srivastava
Additional contact information
A. K. Sahai: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
S. Sharmila: The University of Melbourne
R. Chattopadhyay: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
S. Abhilash: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
N. Borah: George Mason University
B. N. Goswami: Indian Institute of Science Education and Research
D. S. Pai: India Meteorological Department
A. K. Srivastava: India Meteorological Department

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2017, vol. 88, issue 2, No 11, 853-865

Abstract: Abstract The duration and extreme fluctuations of prolonged wet or dry spells associated with intraseasonal variability during extreme monsoon have devastating impacts on agrarian-based economy over Indian subcontinent. This study examines the potential predictability limit of intraseasonal transitions between rainy to non-rainy phases (i.e., active to break phases) or vice versa over central Indian region during extreme monsoon using very high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily rainfall datasets. The present study reveals that the transitions from both active to break and break to active conditions are more predictable by ~8 days during the weak monsoon (WM) years compared to the strong monsoon (SM) years. Such asymmetric behavior in the limit of predictability could be linked to the distinct differences in the large-scale seasonal mean background instability during SM and WM years. The achievability of such predictability is further evaluated in a state-of-the-art climate model, the climate forecast system (CFSv2). It is demonstrated that the observed asymmetry in predictability limit could be reproducible in the CFSv2 model, irrespective of its spatial resolution. This study provides impetus for useful dynamical prediction of wet/dry spells at extended range during the extreme monsoon years.

Keywords: Extreme monsoon; Intraseasonal; Active-break cycle; Potential predictability; Extended range prediction; Climate forecast system model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-2895-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2895-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2895-2

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().