Optimistic bias and the consistency of hurricane track forecasts

Kathleen Sherman-Morris () and Idamis Valle-Martinez
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Kathleen Sherman-Morris: Mississippi State University
Idamis Valle-Martinez: Mississippi State University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2017, vol. 88, issue 3, No 11, 1523-1543

Abstract: Abstract Forecast graphics depicting a hurricane track and uncertainty cone have become pervasive in the communication of hurricane risk. This study examined whether the effect of hurricane tracks on risk perception is influenced by the consistency and optimistic bias. Specifically, it focused on the differences between forecasts that remain consistent compared to those that veer away for a forecast period. To answer the research question, this study conducted online surveys in which respondents from two coastal universities were asked risk perception questions based on a series of forecast graphics. Other variables measured included dispositional optimism, general hurricane risk perception, and hurricane information use. Optimistic bias was calculated from two of the risk perception questions. Results did not indicate strong support for an influence of optimistic bias or changing forecast track on risk perception. There was limited evidence that a veering track scenario may lead to differences in risk judgments about another location, but most measures of personal risk estimation were not influenced by the track. Dispositional optimism was not related to optimistic bias or many of the risk perception variables tested, including general hurricane risk perception. There did appear to be an interaction between track scenario and optimistic bias with more relationships being significant among those who received the consistent track scenario.

Keywords: Heuristics; Risk communication; Hurricane forecasts; Sources of weather information (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2931-2

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