Characteristics analysis of spatial and temporal variation on extreme weather events in Anhui Province for recent 50 years

Jun Zhao (), Jinchao Xu, Xuechun Li, Yi Zhong, Donghao Han and Hang Qiu
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Jun Zhao: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Jinchao Xu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Xuechun Li: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Yi Zhong: Jiaxing Airport
Donghao Han: Shanghai Cathay Advertising Co., LTD
Hang Qiu: Ganyu Meteorological Service

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2017, vol. 89, issue 2, No 17, 817-842

Abstract: Abstract To explore the evolution of extreme weather events, the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation with mutual impact and adaptation are studied. Firstly, it selects the average temperature and the daily precipitation data to investigate the variation characteristics of extreme weather events by linear regression method, accumulative anomalies, Mann–Kendall trend analysis and mutation test with surfer 11 software. Secondly, the effect of weather change on extreme events evolution and its adaptability is analyzed. As for temperature, the average maximum and minimum temperatures increase on the whole in nearly 50 years and decrease gradually from south to north and from east to west with regional distribution. As for precipitation, the extreme precipitation has the mutation and shows a trend of increase for recent 50 years. Compared with different time periods and return periods, the frequency estimates show that extreme precipitation increases firstly and then decreases with each passing day. As for the effect and adaptability, the change of extreme temperature is consistent with extreme precipitation, such as mutation points, and the corresponding spatial relationships. Then the development of weather change is grasped as much as possible, providing the scientific basis for disaster prevention and reduction.

Keywords: Extreme temperature; Extreme precipitation; Mann–Kendall (M–K) trend analysis and mutation test; Surfer 11 software; The curve-fitting method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2995-z

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