Risk prediction of rural public security environmental carrying capacity based on the risk entropy

Xing Huang and Hua Bai ()
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Xing Huang: Southwest University of Science and Technology
Hua Bai: Fujian Normal University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 90, issue 1, No 8, 157-171

Abstract: Abstract In order to achieve effective early warning and prediction for the risk of ecological environmental carrying capacity of rural public security, this paper put forward risk assessment indicators from the perspective of rural ecological, infrastructure, social, and population carrying capacity. And then, this paper constructs risk assessment model of rural ecological environment carrying capacity on the base of genetic projection pursuit model, information diffusion theory, and risk entropy method. First of all, the genetic projection pursuit model is introduced to perform one-dimensional projection for high-dimensional data according to optimal projection direction, and the projection value is fitted with time series together, thus, the risk of rural ecological environment carrying capacity could be divided into four risk levels according to established standard; secondly, we spread the one-dimensional projection value of each sample into four risk levels by information diffusion theory, and calculate the risk entropy of rural environmental carrying capacity by risk entropy method; at last, the empirical analysis shows that the model constructed in this paper is simple and effective, which could provide effective reference and suggestion for environmental protection and public safety department.

Keywords: Environmental carrying capacity assessment; Risk entropy; Projection pursuit model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3037-6

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