A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

Grant Statham (), Pascal Haegeli, Ethan Greene, Karl Birkeland, Clair Israelson, Bruce Tremper, Chris Stethem, Bruce McMahon, Brad White and John Kelly
Additional contact information
Grant Statham: Parks Canada Agency
Pascal Haegeli: Simon Fraser University
Ethan Greene: Colorado Avalanche Information Centre
Karl Birkeland: USDA Forest Service National Avalanche Centre
Clair Israelson: Canadian Avalanche Centre
Bruce Tremper: USDA Forest Service Utah Avalanche Centre
Chris Stethem: Chris Stethem & Associates Ltd.
Bruce McMahon: Parks Canada Agency
Brad White: Parks Canada Agency
John Kelly: Canadian Avalanche Centre

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 90, issue 2, No 7, 663-691

Abstract: Abstract This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.

Keywords: Avalanche hazard; Avalanche danger; Avalanche risk; Avalanche forecasting; Avalanche problem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3070-5

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