Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

Victor Ongoma (), Haishan Chen, Chujie Gao, Aston Matwai Nyongesa and Francis Polong
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Victor Ongoma: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
Haishan Chen: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
Chujie Gao: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
Aston Matwai Nyongesa: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
Francis Polong: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 90, issue 2, No 18, 920 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall (temperature) events in the twenty-first century based on 18 (24)-member multimodel simulations of models participating in phase 5 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The study employed extreme indices defined by the WMO’s Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices, under two radiative forcing scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two 30-year time periods, mid- (2021–2050) and end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century, are considered for investigation of extremes, relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Mann–Kendall test statistic and Sen’s slope estimator are used to investigate trend. Temperature shows a remarkable increase with an increase in radiative forcing. A sharp augmentation in temperature is projected towards the end of the twenty-first century. There will be almost zero cool days and cold nights by the end of the century. Very wet and extremely very wet days increase, especially over Uganda and western Kenya. Variation in maximum 1-day precipitation (R × 1 day) and maximum 5-day precipitation amount shows a remarkable increase in variance towards the end of the twenty-first century. Although the results are based on relatively coarse resolution data, they give likely conditions that can be utilized in long-term planning and be relied on in advanced studies.

Keywords: Climate change; Climate extremes; CMIP5; Temperature; Rainfall; ETCCDI; East Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3079-9

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