Deriving the rainfall threshold for shallow landslide early warning during tropical cyclones: a case study in northern Philippines

Dymphna Nolasco-Javier () and Lalit Kumar
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Dymphna Nolasco-Javier: University of New England
Lalit Kumar: University of New England

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 90, issue 2, No 19, 941 pages

Abstract: Abstract Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) have been a source of social and economic disruption in the mountainous Baguio area in northern Philippines. Prolonged heavy rainfall usually happens during tropical cyclone and southwest monsoon activity. A pragmatic approach to RIL mitigation is to develop rainfall-based early warning. We implemented a modified regression method to derive the empirical minimum intensity (I)–duration (D) threshold I = 6.46 D −0.28 and a normalized ID threshold NI = 0.002 D −0.28 for rainfall duration ranging between 24 and 264 h. Using a separate data set to evaluate the applicability of the threshold, 93% of the landslide-triggering rainfall events fell above the derived threshold. RILs also occurred when 24-h rainfall was 0.02–28% of the mean annual precipitation or after accumulating at least 500 mm of rainfall from the onset of the rainy season. The thresholds may be further refined as more landslide data become available in the future.

Keywords: Rainfall threshold; Rainfall-induced landslide; Intensity–duration; Early warning; Antecedent rainfall; Philippines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3081-2

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