A comparative frequency analysis of three standardized drought indices in the Poyang Lake basin, China
Guixia Yan (),
Denghua Li and
Additional contact information
Guixia Yan: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Zhiyong Wu: Hohai University
Denghua Li: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
Heng Xiao: Yellow River Institute of Science, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 91, issue 1, No 18, 353-374
Abstract Regional drought frequency analysis was carried out in the Poyang Lake basin (PLB) from 1960–2014 based on three standardized drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI). Drought events and characteristics were extracted. A Gumbel–Hougaard (GH) copula was selected to construct the bivariate probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and the joint return periods (T a ) were calculated. Results showed that there were 50 (50 and 40) drought events in the past 55 years based on the SPI (SPEI and SPDI), and 9 (8 and 10) of them were severe with T a more than 10 years, occurred in the 1960s, the 1970s and the 2000s. Overall, the three drought indices could detect the onset of droughts and performed similarly with regard to drought identification. However, for the SPDI, moisture scarcity was less frequent, but it showed more severe droughts with substantially higher severity and longer duration droughts. The conditional return period (Ts|d) was calculated for the spring drought in 2011, and it was 66a and 54a, respectively, based on the SPI and SPDI, which was consistent with the record. Overall, the SPI, only considering the precipitation, can as effectively as the SPEI and SPDI identify the drought process over the PLB under the present changing climate. However, drought is affected by climate and land-cover changes; thus, it is necessary to integrate the results of drought frequency analysis based on different drought indices to improve the drought risk management.
Keywords: Drought; Standardized drought index; Copulas; Return period; Poyang Lake basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-3133-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3133-7
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk
More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().