A new rating system approach for risk analysis of rock slopes

Reza Nassirzadeh Goorchi, Mehdi Amini () and Hossein Memarian
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Reza Nassirzadeh Goorchi: University of Tehran
Mehdi Amini: University of Tehran
Hossein Memarian: University of Tehran

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 91, issue 1, No 5, 75-102

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, an approach is presented to analyze the stability risk of rock slopes based on a new rating system. Three factors are used to estimate the risk level of rock slopes: (1) failure probability, (2) element at risk rating, and (3) vulnerability rating. Element at risk and vulnerability ratings are both given a range from 0 to 10, and the probability of failure is varied between 0 and 1, so the risk rating ranges between 0 and 100. This risk rating can be used to determine both the quantitative and qualitative risk levels of slopes at the same time. The method is tested on the western sector of the slopes facing Songun copper plant phase III, Iran, to clarify its procedures and assess its validity. Deterministic kinematic analyses showed that the slope has a potential for circular failure. Risk assessments revealed that the risk levels of the slope in both static and pseudo-static conditions are “very low” and “high,” respectively.

Keywords: Risk assessment; Rating system; Probability of failure; Element at risk; Vulnerability; Songun copper plant in Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3144-4

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