Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city, Novi Sad (Serbia)

Stevan Savić (), Vladimir Marković, Ivan Šećerov, Dragoslav Pavić, Daniela Arsenović, Dragan Milošević, Dragan Dolinaj, Imre Nagy and Milana Pantelić
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Stevan Savić: University of Novi Sad
Vladimir Marković: University of Novi Sad
Ivan Šećerov: University of Novi Sad
Dragoslav Pavić: University of Novi Sad
Daniela Arsenović: University of Novi Sad
Dragan Milošević: University of Novi Sad
Dragan Dolinaj: University of Novi Sad
Imre Nagy: University of Novi Sad
Milana Pantelić: University of Novi Sad

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 91, issue 3, No 4, 911 pages

Abstract: Abstract Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc.

Keywords: Heat wave; Risk assessment; Air temperature; Human mortality; Local climate zones; Novi Sad (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3160-4

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