Damaging flood severity assessment in Northern Portugal over more than 150 years (1865–2016)

Mónica Santos (), Marcelo Fragoso () and João A. Santos ()
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Mónica Santos: Universidade de Lisboa
Marcelo Fragoso: Universidade de Lisboa
João A. Santos: Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 91, issue 3, No 8, 983-1002

Abstract: Abstract Floods are a major natural hazard, with vast implications over a wide range of socio-economic activities. A harmonized post-flood classification is critical for a better understanding of this hazard, by providing homogeneous flood catalogues for future research on triggering mechanisms. We apply a flood severity index (FSI) to damaging floods in Northern Portugal over a 152-year period (1865–2016) and identify the most critical areas to flood occurrences. The index is a damage-based post-event assessment tool, which includes five categories ranging from minor flooding (1) to catastrophic flooding (5). FSI is applied to a historical damaging flood database with 2318 occurrences. In Northern Portugal, serious floods (3) are the most frequent typology, while catastrophic floods are typically river floods occurring in the Douro basin. Overall, damaging flood occurrences are favoured by the positive phase of the East Atlantic pattern and by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, the north-western areas reveal higher concentrations of damaging flood occurrences, mainly due to higher population density, higher precipitation values and more flood plain areas. In particular, 48% of all occurrences are concentrated in the Porto Metropolitan Area, mainly the Porto city centre and nearby riverside areas of the Douro River. High-population density and heavily urbanized areas lead to greater exposure to flood risk, whereas the most peripheral municipalities, with large agricultural/forested areas, show much lower numbers of damaging floods. FSI is tool to communicate the magnitude of the flood risk and is, therefore, of foremost relevance to civil protection and risk management.

Keywords: Flood severity index; Damaging flood; Flood database; Documentary sources; Northern Portugal; Porto Metropolitan Area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3166-y

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