A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

Hing-Ho Tsang (), James E. Daniell, Friedemann Wenzel and Amelie C. Werner
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Hing-Ho Tsang: Swinburne University of Technology
James E. Daniell: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Friedemann Wenzel: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Amelie C. Werner: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 92, issue 2, No 18, 943-969

Abstract: Abstract Seismic risk is typically quantified probabilistically for a single asset or evaluated through regional loss assessment for selected earthquake events. Ideally, a recurrence relationship for a loss quantity, economic loss or casualty, can be obtained for risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by a fully stochastic approach, for which a large amount of input information is required, whilst there is usually a lack of transparency that might hinder repeatability of the outputs. Hence, the objective of this paper is to introduce a simple and unambiguous procedure for developing parametric societal risk function based on rigorous loss modelling of response-specific probabilistic scenarios. This is then illustrated for the Greater Melbourne Region with fatality as the loss quantity. The proposed semi-probabilistic procedure can be extended to other loss quantities, as well as evaluating societal risk of other natural hazards or multiple hazards.

Keywords: Societal risk; F–N curve; Recurrence relationship; Fatality; Economic loss; Earthquake (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3233-z

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