ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations

Carlo Cauzzi (), Donat Fäh, David J. Wald, John Clinton, Stéphane Losey and Stefan Wiemer
Additional contact information
Carlo Cauzzi: Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich
Donat Fäh: Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich
David J. Wald: United States Geological Survey (USGS)
John Clinton: Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich
Stéphane Losey: Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN), Hazard Prevention Division
Stefan Wiemer: Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 92, issue 2, No 31, 1235 pages

Abstract: Abstract In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide. The probability of occurrence of such earthquake-induced effects is modelled through a set of geospatial susceptibility proxies and peak ground acceleration. The predictive model is tuned to capture the observations from past events and optimised for near-real-time estimates based on USGS-style ShakeMaps routinely produced by the Swiss Seismological Service. Our emphasis is on the use of high-resolution geospatial datasets along with additional local information on ground failure susceptibility. Even if calibrated on historic events with moderate magnitudes, the methodology presented in this paper yields sensible results also for low-magnitude recent events. The model is integrated in the Swiss ShakeMap framework. This study has a high practical relevance to many Swiss ShakeMap stakeholders, especially those managing lifeline systems, and to other global users interested in conducting a similar customisation for their region of interest.

Keywords: ShakeMap; Mass movements; Rockfalls; Landslides; Historical seismicity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3248-5

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