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An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM

Yi-Ming Wei (), Rong Han, Qiao-Mei Liang, Biying Yu (), Yun-Fei Yao, Mei-Mei Xue, Kun Zhang, Li-Jing Liu, Juan Peng, Pu Yang, Zhifu Mi, Yun-Fei Du, Ce Wang (), Jun-Jie Chang, Qian-Ru Yang, Zili Yang, Xueli Shi, Wei Xie (), Changyi Liu, Zhongyu Ma, Jinxiao Tan, Weizheng Wang, Bao-Jun Tang, Yun-Fei Cao, Mingquan Wang, Jin-Wei Wang, Jia-Ning Kang, Ke Wang () and Hua Liao ()
Additional contact information
Rong Han: Beijing Institute of Technology
Yun-Fei Yao: Beijing Institute of Technology
Mei-Mei Xue: Beijing Institute of Technology
Kun Zhang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Li-Jing Liu: Beijing Institute of Technology
Juan Peng: Beijing Institute of Technology
Pu Yang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Yun-Fei Du: Beijing Institute of Technology
Jun-Jie Chang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Qian-Ru Yang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Xueli Shi: The National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration
Changyi Liu: The National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration
Zhongyu Ma: The National Information Center of National Development and Reform Commission
Jinxiao Tan: Beijing Institute of Technology
Weizheng Wang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Yun-Fei Cao: Beijing Institute of Technology
Mingquan Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jin-Wei Wang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Jia-Ning Kang: Beijing Institute of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 92, issue 2, No 2, 585-618

Abstract: Abstract A series of global actions have been made to address climate change. As a recent developed climate policy, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) have renewed attention to the importance of exploring temperature rise levels lower than 2 °C, in particular a long-term limit of 1.5 °C, compared to the preindustrial level. Nonetheless, achieving the 2 °C target under the current INDCs depends on dynamic socioeconomic development pathways. Therefore, this study conducts an integrated assessment of INDCs by taking into account different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To that end, the CEEP-BIT research community develops the China’s Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model (C3IAM) to assess the climate change under SSPs in the context of with and without INDCs. Three SSPs, including “a green growth strategy” (SSP1), “a more middle-of-the-road development pattern” (SSP2) and “further fragmentation between regions” (SSP3) form the focus of this study. Results show that after considering INDCs, mitigation costs become very low and they have no evident positive changes in three SSPs. In 2100, a temperature rise would occur in SSP1-3, which is 3.20, 3.48 and 3.59 °C, respectively. There are long-term difficulties to keep warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts toward 1.5 °C target even under INDCs. A drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. This work contributes on realizing the hard link between the earth and socioeconomic systems, as well as extending the economic models by coupling the global CGE model with the economic optimum growth model. In C3IAM, China’s energy consumption and emissions pattern are investigated and refined. This study can provide policy makers and the public a better understanding about pathways through which different scenarios could unfold toward 2100, highlights the real mitigation and adaption challenges faced by climate change and can lead to formulating effective policies.

Keywords: Climate change; Integrated Assessment Modeling; C3IAM; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; INDCs; Mitigation and adaption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3297-9

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