The mapping of storm surge-prone areas and characterizing surge-producing cyclones in Leyte Gulf, Philippines

Socorro Margarita T. Rodrigo (), Cesar L. Villanoy, Jeric C. Briones, Princess Hope T. Bilgera, Olivia C. Cabrera and Gemma Teresa T. Narisma
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Socorro Margarita T. Rodrigo: Ateneo de Manila University
Cesar L. Villanoy: University of the Philippines
Jeric C. Briones: Ateneo de Manila University
Princess Hope T. Bilgera: University of the Philippines
Olivia C. Cabrera: University of the Philippines
Gemma Teresa T. Narisma: Ateneo de Manila University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 92, issue 3, No 3, 1305-1320

Abstract: Abstract Historically, Leyte Gulf in central eastern Philippines has received catastrophic damage due to storm surges, the most recent of which was during Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. A city-level risk assessment was performed on Leyte Gulf through synthetic storm generation, high-resolution ocean modeling, and decision tree analyses. Cyclones were generated through a combination of a Poisson point process and Monte Carlo simulations. Wind and pressure fields generated from the cyclones were used in a storm surge model of Leyte Gulf developed on Delft3D. The output of these simulations was a synthetic record of extreme sea level events, which were used to estimate maximum surge heights for different return periods and to characterize surge-producing storm characteristics using decision tree analyses. The results showed that the area most prone to surges is the Tacloban–Basey area with a 2.8 ± 0.3 m surge occurring at a frequency of every 50 years. Nearby Palo area will likely receive a surge of 1.9 ± 0.4 m every 50 years while Giporlos–Salcedo area a surge of 1.0 ± 0.1 m. The decision tree analysis performed for each of these areas showed that for surges of 3–4 m, high-velocity winds (> 30 m/s) are consistently the main determining factor. For the areas, Tacloban, Basey, and Giporlos–Salcedo, wind speed was also the main determining factor for surge > 4 m.

Keywords: Storm surge; Leyte Gulf; J48 Decision tree; Return period; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3252-9

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