Pastoralists’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change: associations with observed climate variability

Qin Zhang (), Fengqi Cui (), Luwei Dai (), Bing Feng (), Yunjing Lu () and Haiping Tang ()
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Qin Zhang: Beijing Normal University
Fengqi Cui: Beijing Normal University
Luwei Dai: Beijing Normal University
Bing Feng: Beijing Normal University
Yunjing Lu: Beijing Normal University
Haiping Tang: Beijing Normal University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2019, vol. 96, issue 3, No 18, 1387-1412

Abstract: Abstract Although climate change is a universal phenomenon, its indicators and manifestations are entirely local, as are adaptation choices, strategies, and practices. Based on face-to-face interview data from 427 randomly selected pastoral households of the Hulun Buir grassland in northern China, this study investigated perceptions and impacts of historical climate change and the associations of these perceptions with observed climate change. Meanwhile, we identified pastoralists’ responses to climate change, as well as barriers to the adaptation process. We used binary logistic regression models to determine the factors that influence climate change adaptation strategies. The results show that pastoralists’ perception of the inter-annual variability in climate variables is relatively consistent with the observed meteorological data. Pastoralists’ adaptive strategies for climate variability comprise primarily livestock and pasture management interventions, such as “purchasing fodder”, “reducing livestock”, “part-time grazing”, and “renting pasture”. In addition, pastoralists identified several barriers that are allied with adaptation practices, such as limited grassland tenure, an absence of credit, and limited access to agricultural markets. Furthermore, the sex, age, and education level of the head of household and the household livelihood capital and location were found to be the key factors determining the choice of adaptation strategies. This knowledge helps to assess the needs for action and information and to improve the credibility of policies that shape collective actions based on a unified plan or goal. Combined, these efforts aid in adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of the livestock sector, especially the livelihood security of smallholder pastoralists in grassland ecosystems.

Keywords: Adaptation barriers; Livelihood capital; SPEI index; Pastoral households (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03620-5

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