Estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude using extreme value methodology: the Groningen case

Jan Beirlant (), Andrzej Kijko, Tom Reynkens and John Einmahl
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Jan Beirlant: KU Leuven
Andrzej Kijko: University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre
Tom Reynkens: KU Leuven

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2019, vol. 98, issue 3, No 12, 1113 pages

Abstract: Abstract The area-characteristic, maximum possible earthquake magnitude $$T_M$$ T M is required by the earthquake engineering community, disaster management agencies and the insurance industry. The Gutenberg–Richter law predicts that earthquake magnitudes M follow a truncated exponential distribution. In the geophysical literature, several estimation procedures were proposed, see for instance, Kijko and Singh (Acta Geophys 59(4):674–700, 2011) and the references therein. Estimation of $$T_M$$ T M is of course an extreme value problem to which the classical methods for endpoint estimation could be applied. We argue that recent methods on truncated tails at high levels (Beirlant et al. Extremes 19(3):429–462, 2016; Electron J Stat 11:2026–2065, 2017) constitute a more appropriate setting for this estimation problem. We present upper confidence bounds to quantify uncertainty of the point estimates. We also compare methods from the extreme value and geophysical literature through simulations. Finally, the different methods are applied to the magnitude data for the earthquakes induced by gas extraction in the Groningen province of the Netherlands.

Keywords: Anthropogenic seismicity; Endpoint estimation; Extreme value theory; Truncation; 62G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: Estimating the Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude Using Extreme Value Methodology: the Groningen Case (2017)
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3162-2

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