Socioeconomic impacts of a shortage in imported oil supply: case of China

Mei-Mei Xue, Gang Wu, Qian Wang, Yun-Fei Yao and Qiao-Mei Liang
Additional contact information
Mei-Mei Xue: Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology
Gang Wu: National Natural Science Foundation of China
Qian Wang: China Development Institute
Yun-Fei Yao: Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2019, vol. 99, issue 3, No 15, 1415-1430

Abstract: Abstract Oil is an essential and important energy source and is related to energy security and national strategy. Based on a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this study examines the potential impacts on the major socioeconomic indices in China, which includes economic growth, price level, employment, household welfare, and production activity, under different imported oil shortage scenarios. Results show that oil shortage has negative impacts on China’s economic growth; if all the extra proceeds from domestic oil price increase is assigned to government budget for compensating investment loss, the negative impacts on GDP will mainly stem from its negative impacts on total consumption; the decrease in labor income plays an obviously greater role in the decrease in total consumption than the effects of an increase in CPI. The negative impacts on rural households are greater than urban households. The profit of most production sectors, and the export of almost all sectors, will be negatively influenced.

Keywords: Oil shortage; Socioeconomic impacts; Computable general equilibrium; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-018-3472-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3472-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3472-z

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().