A multi-objective constrained partially observable Markov decision process model for breast cancer screening

Robert Kraig Helmeczi (), Can Kavaklioglu (), Mucahit Cevik () and Davood Pirayesh Neghab ()
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Robert Kraig Helmeczi: Ryerson University
Can Kavaklioglu: Ryerson University
Mucahit Cevik: Ryerson University
Davood Pirayesh Neghab: Ryerson University

Operational Research, 2023, vol. 23, issue 2, No 8, 42 pages

Abstract: Abstract Breast cancer is a common and deadly disease, but it is often curable when diagnosed early. While most countries have large-scale screening programs, there is no consensus on a single globally accepted guideline for breast cancer screening. The complex nature of the disease; the limited availability of screening methods such as mammography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and ultrasound; and public health policies all factor into the development of screening policies. Resource availability concerns necessitate the design of policies which conform to a budget, a problem which can be modelled as a constrained partially observable Markov decision process (CPOMDP). In this study, we propose a multi-objective CPOMDP model for breast cancer screening which allows for supplemental screening methods to accompany mammography. The model has two objectives: maximize the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and minimize lifetime breast cancer mortality risk (LBCMR). We identify the Pareto frontier of optimal solutions for average and high-risk patients at different budget levels, which can be used by decision-makers to set policies in practice. We find that the policies obtained by using a weighted objective are able to generate well-balanced QALYs and LBCMR values. In contrast, the single-objective models generally sacrifice a substantial amount in terms of QALYs/LBCMR for a minimal gain in LBCMR/QALYs. Additionally, our results show that, with the baseline values for cost and disutility parameters, supplemental screenings are rarely recommended in CPOMDP policies, especially in a budget-constrained setting. A sensitivity analysis reveals the thresholds on cost and disutility values at which supplemental screenings become advantageous to prescribe.

Keywords: Markov decision processes; Constrained POMDPs; Breast cancer screening; Medical decision making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s12351-023-00774-w

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