Performance of the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 for Predicting Death and Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus from a German Population-Based Cohort

Michael Laxy (), Verena Maria Schöning, Christoph Kurz, Rolf Holle, Annette Peters, Christa Meisinger, Wolfgang Rathmann, Kristin Mühlenbruch and Katharina Kähm
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Michael Laxy: Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
Verena Maria Schöning: Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
Christoph Kurz: Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
Annette Peters: Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
Christa Meisinger: Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
Wolfgang Rathmann: Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center
Kristin Mühlenbruch: German Institute of Human Nutrition
Katharina Kähm: Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)

PharmacoEconomics, 2019, vol. 37, issue 12, No 6, 1485-1494

Abstract: Abstract Background and Objective Accurate prediction of relevant outcomes is important for targeting therapies and to support health economic evaluations of healthcare interventions in patients with diabetes. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk equations are some of the most frequently used risk equations. This study aims to analyze the calibration and discrimination of the updated UKPDS risk equations as implemented in the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) for predicting cardiovascular (CV) events and death in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from population-based German samples. Methods Analyses are based on data of 456 individuals diagnosed with T2DM who participated in two population-based studies in southern Germany (KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg)-A: 1997/1998, n = 178; KORA-S4: 1999–2001, n = 278). We compared the participants’ 10-year observed incidence of mortality, CV mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke with the predicted event rate of the UKPDS-OM2. The model’s calibration was evaluated by Greenwood–Nam–D’Agostino tests and discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics. Results Of the 456 participants with T2DM (mean age 65 years, mean diabetes duration 8 years, 56% male), over the 10-year follow-up time 129 died (61 due to CV events), 64 experienced an MI, and 46 a stroke. The UKPDS-OM2 significantly over-predicted mortality and CV mortality by 25% and 28%, respectively (Greenwood–Nam–D’Agostino tests: p

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s40273-019-00822-4

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